RED 12.3% 32.0¢ red 5 limited

Ann: FY24 Financial Results and FY25 Outlook, page-49

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    "My thought: if there is a plan they will be saving it for after the change of name. Once a company has decided to change a name they don't waste good news on the old name if they can help it."

    Very good point. I'd also add to that:

    1) in 16 months time the hedge book will be largely delivered into and almost irrelevant. Market will begin to discount that fact for FY26 forecasting.

    2) in today's announcement, the strip ratio for KOTH Stage 2 cutback has reduced to 3.9 from 5.4 in the 2023 reserve statement, reducing cut-off grade from 0.4 to 0.3g/t. This will presumably lead to a significant increase of the 2.1Moz open pit reserve. The company has clear intention to increase throughput from 4.7 Mtpa nameplate capacity to the permitted 6.0 Mtpa rate in months ahead.

    3) Increasing production, grade and large stockpile build at Santa to drive down AISC costs at MM in FY26/27. Ramp-up of underground drilling at KOTH and 200m below wire frame at SW Deflector, and development of Spanish Galleon to extend mine life there.

    4) quite clear to me from today's announcement and FY24 drilling results that Sugar Zone will resume production once they've worked out best route for LOM tailings deposition, with infill drilling at Sugar Zone South to continue in the interim and included in the mine plan:

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6418/6418855-66471768d6e6946f703163515ef9d7ae.jpg

    It's not all bad with FY25 AISC margin of $400m+ and all growth capital easily funded from free cash flow. I'd rotated a few recently into other stocks that have done alright, but see opportunities here in the months ahead. Needs better sentiment and name change will help that if provided with a clearer plan and concomitant reduction of the hedges.
 
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