thanks for the response. insightful history as always. agree...

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LambDownUnder

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16/08/24

16:32

Post #: 75242841
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Originally posted by Exised: ↑

Good question and honestly it is hard to say. I'm going by my spreadsheets here and the last time NST and EVN roughly had the same PE was during the gold mining sector Wipeout of July 2022. The Gold price broke key support level set March 2021. Production woes on all miners not just gold miners due to the lack of workers, supply chain and equipment constraints etc... nasty period.

In a race to the bottom the NST SP hit a bottom at $6.60 while EVN hit $2.26 20/07/2022. It is around this time where their PE was roughly similar. Unfortunately for EVN the SP continued downward to $1.805 by 20/10/2022 while NST SP was well into recovery at $7.77 on that date. NST have held onto that premium ever since.

Similar to a race to the bottom, in a race to the top we will see similar conditions i.e. market overshooting valuations short term. In that case the NST and EVN PE will become roughly similar again and the pattern set the last few days have been for EVN to overshoot NST PE like it did during the 2022 downside. Looking at the EVN SP strength at present.

LT I believe the underlying pattern of NST having a premium will remain. Driven by better assets, more ounces and overall market preference for consistent short term swashbuckling profitability headlines. Not that EVN is a slouch, there is a reason why both are cornerstone gold miners in the portfolio since 2014. I find both to have their own merits and are well and truly investment grade companies.

After all these years, I have not been able to discern which one I like best. If we boil them down to their essence, NST is clearly on an unashamed thirst for growth in ounces and hence earnings. While EVN is on growth in earnings via a mantra of margins over ounces. Both tact will get you there long term. EVN will be the clear winner in preserving LOM longer term while NST will win in converting those ounces in dollars ASAP. In a short term minded market I know where the premium will go first. It will always be the money now that wins over the more money long term.

Hope that helps answering your question...

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thanks for the response. insightful history as always.

agree though, both are solid and there needn't be a choice to pick one or the other

NST Price at posting: $14.20 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $15.79		Change -0.050(0.32%)		Mkt cap ! $18.21B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$15.79	$15.79	$15.70	$3.067M	195.1K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
13	3220	$15.78

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
$15.79	2028	10

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
19	7096	15.740
17	5602	15.730
16	11510	15.720
11	15076	15.710
14	40608	15.700

Price($)	Vol.	No.
15.760	2236	5
15.770	2180	6
15.780	3482	10
15.790	3067	11
15.800	8408	9

Last trade - 10.36am 04/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

NST (ASX) Chart

thanks for the response. insightful history as always. agree...

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thanks for the response. insightful history as always. agree...

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