"Which year is the greater anomaly? Hmmmm" Valid question....

"Which year is the greater anomaly? Hmmmm"

Valid question. Probably both, I'd say.

Trouble is, with limited historical precedent it's difficult to know what a "normal" year looks like.

But that's a moot point at the minute, because the more pressing issue is the rate that the company is burning through its capital resources:

Looking at the second-half cash flows, Net Receipts less Payments of Leases was -$88m (and that's before payments for exploration & evaluation, capex, taxes etc), and the lithium price was probably close to 30% higher in the half than it is currently, so that number is going to get a lot more negative at the prevailing lithium price.

As a result, Net Cash fell by $500m in over the past 6 months, to be at $1.07bn at 30 June 2024 balance date (certain to be below $1.0bn today). It was a whopping $2.9bn at 30 June 2023. Such is the extent of the capital drawdown.

Hard to believe that this company went from generating hundreds of millions of dollars in surplus capital a mere 12 months ago, to facing a capital adequacy issue today.

Despite securing additional borrowings capacity, the odds on an equity capital raising went from zero 12 months ago, to a number that is now a non-trivial probability above zero at some point. And the longer the lithium price remains where it is, the higher that probability goes.

Looking at the current cash flows, I don't think there will be much incentive for short-sellers to cover their positions; the opposite probably. I strongly suspect they'll wait for a capital raising to cover.

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