Ann: FY24 Half-Year Results, page-12

Thanks Essa, it was a rough guess rounded off, but the moving parts in more detail below...

As the mine closes, BSE should receive all their current assets in addition to actual cash on hand over the next 12 months less whatever 'stores items' are left over at cost but essentially unrecoverable (eg acc rec sales owing, HMC con and finished goods sold etc). Say $78M cash + $42M Acc Rec + $20M from Inventories (because $10M of HMC 'at cost' will be sold for 100% mark-up)... so ~US$140M. Add to that say another $20M in free cash profit from the last 10 months of mining (could be >$30M?) progressively lower grade ore for $160M cash equiv.


From cash deduct accounts payable and closure rehab provisions etc of ~US$70M, and BSE end up with net cash of US$90M. The $7M and $10M Deferred Consideration liabilities are Toliara Vendor payments that only get triggered if toliara is approved, so if Toliara isn;t then they are never triggered.


The biggest variables are what is the selvedge value from the substantial property, plant and equipment is possible (eg all the hydro mining units, pumps, and plant to say SVM or other players) and what is the actual closure costs end up as, and does Kenya try to screw BSE on the way out by not repaying VAT and generally demanding onerous extra rehab, compo etc? US$100M is a round figure that assumes selvedge value roughly balances out blowout in closure costs, but there is a lot of plant and equipment that still has value at Kwale imo.

What the actual situation looks like in 12-24 months who knows? I'm of the opinion that a deal is done with the government this year and BSE runs down cash, but not out of cash, into FID by the end of 2025.

GLTAH