Ann: FY24 Investor Presentation, page-3

Just got this in an email...

Friday, 15 November 2024

GNC - GRAINCORP LIMITED

Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) - Following yesterday's FY24 results for GrainCorp, Macquarie makes lower margin assumptions for the Agribiz segment and reduces the target to $9.85 from $10.07. The Outperform rating is kept.

Yesterday's Broker Call summary: GrainCorp reported FY24 results with net profit of $77m versus Macquarie's forecast of $66m, and EBITDA of $268m versus the broker's estimate of $259m.

At first glance, the analyst notes agribusiness performed slightly better, with softer grain volumes from FY23 and lower margins.

Nutrition and processing, previously under energy, were in line with expectations, with a 33% rise in EBITDA on record crush volumes, offset by lower margins.

Management continues to explore crush expansion with an ongoing feasibility study and is working with Ampol ((ALD)). A FEED phase-in is targeted for FY28.

Macquarie believes the company's balance sheet is a strength, with $337m in net cash, supporting an annualised $500m buyback and a 48c FY24 dividend per share.

Target price is $10.07 Current Price is $8.59 Difference: $1.48 If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges). Current consensus price target is $9.72, suggesting upside of 13.2%(ex-dividends)The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 48.50 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.24%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.71. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 51.30 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.36%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.74. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.7, implying annual growth of -1.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources