I'm really looking forward to this presentation. Despite the challenges of having to compound results on bigger and bigger numbers, the company has been increasing its rate of growth.
I continue to be amazed at how well the company is doing outside of the U.S. Sales outside of the U.S have traditionally been very challenging for new companies like Polynovo without an existing footprint, trying to navigate different markets outside of the U.S. So much so, that it is not unusual to see the growth rates for a new company like PNV to have growth rates in the rest of the world significantly lower than the growth rates in the U.S. This has not been the case for PNV, and I think a significant factor behind this success has been driven by surgeons themselves who have been publishing their papers on their use of BTM.
Despite PNV being an ASX200 company, this has not been widely held be institutions. I am only aware of two smaller fund managers holding this stock. I think this is set to change in the very near future (<12 months) for a number of reasons:
1. The stock has already passed its breakeven point and is likely to continue to grow profitability despite it not being a priority at all.
2. There is clear strategy being developed to expand the range of products the company has to address other market needs - each with its own massive underserved markets. It would also show the market more clearly that it is not a one product company
3. Consolidation of the company's product as 'the standard of care'. Unfortunately, there has been a long standing view from analysts that the company is still the little unknown upstart against the 400 pound gorilla, and that you needed to discount the stock heavily, given the inertia of its customers to move. I think the company has beyond proving this view incorrect, and when the broader market comes to that realisation, it would support a very quick jump in the stock price.
4. Consistent growth. In the few years around and after covid, the company's growth trajectory was inconsistent. This has been changing as the company has been delivering very good growth over a number of reporting periods - is it enough to change the mind of the market? Maybe it is, maybe the market will want another half, who knows for sure? What I do know is that the results for the past 18 months have been excellent and compelling.
At the end of the day, what matters is the company's ability to continue to grow and sustain that growth. The latest unaudited results shows that it is continue very well along that path, and there are a number of other catalysts I have not mentioned such as the BARDA trials, expansion into India etc, but those are additional factors that can further add fuel to the fire.
It would not be surprised if Christmas comes and we're at over $4.
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