Origin Energy – FY25 Guidance Update (26 May 2025)
Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) upgraded its FY25 Energy Markets underlying EBITDA guidance to $1.3–1.4bn, narrowing toward the high end of its prior range due to strong wholesale generation, favourable market conditions, and lower green certificate costs. However, its share of Octopus Energy earnings is now forecast as a loss of $0–100m, reversing earlier guidance, primarily due to unseasonably warm UK weather and unresolved accounting issues related to past government subsidies. Despite the downgrade, Octopus continues to grow rapidly, particularly outside the UK and in its Kraken software platform, which now serves 74 million accounts globally.
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