Chris, who is usually a powerful presenter and owns his space - clearly appeared under pressure today. Even more so than he was at the AGM when facing investors for the first time since AFR exposed him.
Mistake 1:- Rattling on about the business updates and updated on childcare centre, diversity/women etc etc on a day like today! Markets were not in a mood for that sort of non-sense. Should have come straight to point and answered questions honestly and with integrity.
Mistake 2:- Should have never said "Board is backing me to take this company forward". That sends a very wrong message to Instos that are already pissed.
Mistake 3:- Not being a 100% clear on the Haul road and truck rollover issue. What is the problem, what is being done about it, what is the timeline to completely fixing the issue and lastly, what is the financial impact until fully fixed
Mistake 4:- They should have come to this meeting with a deal in their hand. Have talked about pulling levers but If I was Chris/Mark I will start todays meeting with another $1B sale/cash inflow no matter what they have to give up for that luxury. Sell Bald hill, Sell Mt Marion or sell Wodgina if you have to. Better than losing 20% market cap in 1 day.
Plenty of critics are having their "I told you so" moment on X and in case they didn't have enough fun on X - they are now doing victory laps here on HC.
Some positives that came out of todays results:-
Positive 1:- Mining , crushing part of the flowsheet is already exceeding 35mtpa - This is MinRes's core competency 100% marks here
Positive 2:- Transhippers 1, 2 and 3 achieved name plate of 7mtpa each - a Total of 21Mtpa. T4 and T5 will take is to 35Mtpa. This was the biggest fear 2 years ago whether transhipper will work or not. They do - 100% marks here
Positive 3:- Mining services is clearly on track for 1 billion EBITDA per annum. 100% Marks here.
Positive 4:- The realised price of Onslow product is well above what markets were forecasting. We only need this strength to last for a year to make a big dent in Debt.
In conclusion:-
a) What's missing w.r.t Onslow now is the Haul Road and Trucking issue. If the cement reinforcement and Asphalt resurfacing will fix these issues by August/September with or without some additional road trains- I will take that as a satisfactory outcome given I added significantly to my holdings today at a 20% discount to yesterday's close If, however, there is more to the story here that market is not being informed about, the investors backlash will be well warranted!
b) Balance sheet wise:- Unfortunately Chris needs to swallow his ego and cut another limb here and get a billion dollar cash in the door. Whether we like it or not the beast needs feeding and I better save the beast than my ego.
Good luck all. and Piss off drama queens doing victory laps on X
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