Ok lets put some things into perspective about the bonds.
Bond prices change due to a number of factors:
1. Credit quality (Risk of default) 2. Changes in rates - Risk free (cash rate) and Credit spreads (Rate above cash) 3. Duration (time to repay)
Here is a good example of how sentiment can affect bond prices, in a lot of cases irrationally. I bought these bonds back in 2023.
Coinbase Bonds were trading at nearly on 50 cents on the dollar. Coinbase were close to cash flow neutral but the market thought they would struggle with higher rates and the crypto market crashing.
Fast forward to today and they are nearly back at par value. They never even looked like defaulting, despite the market commentary.
Why aren't they back to par today? Why are they dropping now?
Similar concerns, crypto down and even though they generate free cash, the market is worried about their ratings and ability to repay.
Additionally, when bonds get a ratings downgrade, a lot of institutions become forced sellers, they have to sell Coinbase bonds (Or Min) because they are move to a lower a tranche of quality that doesn't align with the mandate in their fund. Similar to how stocks fall out of the ASX200 (Forced selling). This creates dislocations in price as the market is fairly illiquid once they fall out of rating categories.
As for Ben Lyons, he has hated MIN from day dot. He has been a perpetual bear and stuck to MIN any time he has the chance. That AFR article interviewed him for a reason.
MIN Price at posting:
$16.72 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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