Mins becoming bankrupt is very unlikely. Even take the bonds at current prices implies say 8% probability of non-repayment. If Onslow works the P/E is 3, so that's an excellent bet by the following maths: Onslow works: Mins price = $50 *.92 + onslow doesn't work *.08 = $46 fair value = 167% return. Yes, it shouldn't be the whole of your wealth, and you shouldn't be in MINs if you can't sleep at night with an 8% default probability. But if you like high risk adjusted returns, its an excellent trade, and excellent part of a balanced portfolio.
I'm happy to bet anyone and give 4 to 1 odds any sum that Mins won't go into administration this year, if that helps any of you.
MIN Price at posting:
$17.36 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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