OK so the HY report is going to drop on the 12th, this coming week.
I'm optimistic for positive results here, given:
EBITDA has been steadily increasing, my calculations as follows:
2022 2nd half: $42.3M
2023 1st half: $80.0M (total $122.3M FY23)
2023 2nd half: $80.4M
2024 1st half: $98M (total $178.4M FY24)
Company's projected EBITDA for FY25: $202.1M.
I'm therefore hoping to see EBITDA for 2nd half of 2024 around or over the $100M mark.
From the official announcements during the 2nd half of 2024, there's nothing to point towards a disappointing result. Although we were impacted by the closure of BHPs nickel mines, the CEO in his address at the AGM said "We now have line of sight on what the BHP Nickel West schedule changes are likely to be and are confident that any subsequent available capacity will be taken up by existing and new customers".
There's also the sale of 6 airframes and 13 engine cores, reducing capital expenditure although that's looking into future reports.
We have a new CFO/CS who I'm sure will want to prove himself, and the co-founder and Chairman Steve Padgett who has already signaled he will be retiring this year and will surely want to go out on a continued high. We may even see a return to dividends soon.
12 months ago after the last HY report, the SP was around 3.20 then dropped to around 2.8 in the following days. We've been in a range of 2.65 to 3.20 since then for no fundamental reason as far as I can see. A good result this coming week should IMO see an impulsive move in the SP, and hopefully not just a flash in the pan.
GLTAH
(20min delay)