The problem for AQZ is the elephant in the room, Qantas. Having been prevented from taking over AQZ, what will they do?
They have contracts with AQZ to use our E190s to run thin routes. However, the only domestic aircraft that QAN is buying keenly at the moment is A220s, the aircraft that is designed to replace E190s on those routes. Will the demand for low capacity planes be enough to sustain all the A220s and Alliance's E190s? We all know which ones will be the first to go if Qantas changes their capacities on those routes.
The there is what QAN will do with their 19% holding in AQZ. It is a big overhang in the tradeable shares of AQZ. If they were to dump them quickly, it won't make any difference to QAN but would make a big short term difference in the AQZ share price.
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(20min delay)