WGX (ASX) Ann: FY25 Production Guidance Lifts to 400-420Koz

Originally posted by speculator101: ↑

Hi Trend,

So... are you saying that management like CMM, who are conservative, are not actually doing their job?
Also, I used the word conservative, not WGX. I am merely speculating that they are being excessively conservative because, the company just completed it's largest corporate action in almost a decade. Plus... it is attempting to expand 5 of it's 6 U/G mines simultaneously to varying degrees, which I would argue would almost make it logical that they are being conservative because... as WGX has shown in the past, their U/G mine plans are not full proof (though hopefully with the incredible amount of infill drilling done across the operating U/G mines, there will not be a repeat of Paddy Flats).

As you also accurately state, FY24 guidance did not get met, well... it was downgrades, then met (but I think it was a miss and I imagine Wayne has not forgotten how frustrating a situation that was), so... being conservative is likely a planned strategy, the market won't punish WGX if they beat the current guidance. I also agree with you about WGX having said something similar in regards to having upside options, which did not eventuate. If I can hazard a guess, WB and the board were really optimistic and... the reality of developing new mines was a major hand break (but a necessary one), so... I can understand that some might be less willing to believe everything WGX is saying right now, but then.... either you believe the MD and board or you don't (I have since mid 2022 and I have been vindicated in my trust.

Whilst I agree they have not broken down the exact guidance, I think it's fairly easy to ascertain a breakdown of the figures.

WGX produced 227k in FY24 (revised) -
Bluebird & Tucka produced 170k
Fortnum produced 58k.

Karora produced (this I admit has annoyed me) approx 175k for FY24 (but I cannot be sure as..... they have not provided any details on the June Q for Karora)....

So... if WGX was to only replicated FY24, then guidance would have been around 403k.
WGX have made it clear that production growth is weighted to the second half, as Beta, Great Fingall and Blue/South all ramp up to their full run rates (or... at least in Great Fingall case, begin mining).

Again, I believe this then shows that they are being conservative. As Beta and Bluebird/South will be adding a lot more tonnes and Great Fingall is the unknown for now.

thanks @JohnGee80 except... costs are not up, they are reducing... did you read the announcement?

Regarding the large amount of capex, I think the company has been very clear... 3 large U/G mines are being expanded and developed simultaneously. That costs $$. For example, Bluebird/South Junction is aiming to go from 550k to 1.2mpta.....

Thank you for your thoughts @wassa, though I do find it sad that all you want to do is talk down my posts.

Because I have some time and also because, I have appreciated your differing point of view I had a quick look at what you thought of WGX back in mid 2022, when.... the company was literally at firesale prices.

@Joelstar btw mate, you had some really great posts on WGX from Aug-Dec 2022... I hope you made some great returns to match your analysis.

You changed your tune just after this post, which I believe, enabled you to make some excellent returns until you excited in early 2023.... then.... you became very negative on the company ever since.

Your thoughts proved very accurate and again, I hope you also did well with your investment in WGX (I know you did because there are posts you refer to your trading profits).

This post really got me... you could see all that WGX were aiming to do and you admire it, yet now.... you speak like the company is trash and anyone positive on it... is no better.

Regarding Great Fingall Capex - as I understand it, a lot of non-sustaining capex has been pushed back by 6-9 months because...... they had planned to be fully mining Great Fingal by now, but as explained last year, they quickly realised that they were pushing the development team and expectations too hard, so.... capex is now lumped into FY25 (most of it, versus being spread between FY24 & FY25).

I could go on, but... at this point, I have really appreciated your critical views. Hopefully we can discuss other stocks instead of WGX.

Good luck to all holders and hopefully WGX have a safe and profitable first quarter as merged entity.

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WGX job is to come together and determine what they think the production figure is for the 12 months. They then allow a lower and higher figure which allows for a margin of error. That's part of their job. Their job isn't to come up with a figure and then make it more conservative because things might go wrong. In WGX's case it's likely a tough job with the merger and various developments in progress. Fortunately we pay these people a large amount of money so I'm hopeful they can do their job properly.

I do suspect most companies go with a more conservative option though so they'll look good at the end of the year to their shareholders and put their hands out for bonusses.

I'm liking the discussion on here because I'm less bullish than speculator and less bearish than wassa. I like WGX and the share price has been good so far but it's hard to be massively optimistic seeing current guidance and knowing that WGX churned out 250+ a couple of years ago and we don't look like seeing that again for some time.