Ann: FYI & ALCOA SIGN BINDING JV TERM SHEET FOR FYI HPA PROJECT, page-166

No the usual % dont apply due to likely dilution risk to get a project off the ground. The 35% accounts for dilution in this case.

I dont think its a rocket level upside there though, but if you assumed a 50% dilution (pretty normal combined with debt) then itd be more like 75% & 87.5% or something. Maybe slightly less.

Lastly that $1B NPV was USD. So x 1.4 to get aud.

Im reckoning that valuation now would be ~USD350M x 1.4 AUD/USD = $490M @ 75% = $367.5M

So you can see why the SP plummeted down from the highs. But imo, we are around a 20% upside from here. Whether it bounces soon, or goes sideways or whatever for another year until the demo plant decision is made, who knows.

But yeah, imo its still not great, but not nearly as bad as your initial numbers here.