An alternate view might come in handy for some.
There is nothing special about FYI's process. The three pilot plant runs done before the MOU only produced a mix of 3N and 4N. The process was developed by a third party Independent Metallurgy Operations', https://www.indmetops.com.au/, there are no patents; the process is pretty much the same as the other Kaolin play hopefuls.
FYI was a 10c company when the MOU was signed and flew all the way to 80c on the back of the Alcoa association. From where Alcoa sit, they probably still look at FYI as the same small-cap company they first set eyes on hence the 35% - after all - what has changed to add value to the MC? Not a great deal, apart from the work that Alcoa did themselves on getting the pilot plant working correctly. And, that was done with an alternate feedstock. And interestingly Alcoa mentioned the alternate feedstock in their ann last Friday. Is this the preferred feedstock from now on for this project? Have FYI now ditched the Cadoux project? Did someone say the word pivot?
Market development, well, it's not a commodity in the sense that there is no spot market for HPA - it's a particular industrial chemical. Customers will take a long time to acquire. You provide a customer with samples, and then there is an iterative process where you produce HPA to the customer specifications; this is not easy and takes time. The customer then has to test the product in whatever they are making; this can take over a year as customers will test their products in situ. As an example, a potential A4N customer was testing HPA for over 8 months in a battery separator running 24/7, you have to wait.
A4N has eight tenders out for high volume/value HPA offtake contracts; FYI has none and is not even close to doing so - not sure about the other hopefuls. The A4N outreach program is out to over 70 customers, FYI has only sent HPA product to maybe a handful. I'm not sure why people think FYI going to be the first cab off the rank?
The other issue you have, the way forward through each phase isn't clear - what are Alcoa/FYI measuring to assess if they go beyond each stage? Is there some target? What are the metrics? I feel for holders, as it would be much easier to understand the thinking behind each phase if you knew what each company had to deliver to proceed through each stage. How about they be transparent with shareholders for a change so you guys and gals can make informed investment decisions based on facts? Instead, it's still not entirely clear what is going to happen and the FYI cheer squad will fill in the gaps on these threads with overly optimistic garbage - it's already happening - and we've just witnessed how that ends up.
A4N has copped a lot of nonsense from FYI holders regarding the construction of their 200tpa plant; it's almost amusing that they are now attempting a similar strategy with their demonstration plant.
My opinion is that if your average is below 20c, it's a good deal for FYI; but only because not much was happening before the MOU with Alcoa. The timelines will get blown out as they almost always do, and the demonstration plant won't be done until the second half of 2023 and the main plant, who knows, maybe 2025/26 if they get that far.
@spid81 opinions are on the money - another holder of an alternate HPA stock that FYI holders can thank TCB for arriving on these threads.
DYOR - DYOR - go back and read the anns!
