GLN 15.2% 19.0¢ galan lithium limited

I understand people are frustrated but this sort of stuff...

  1. 4,958 Posts.
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    I understand people are frustrated but this sort of stuff doesn’t make sense. Canaccord isn’t getting “more” or getting “a bigger position”, they don’t own any shares. The Marcus Padley post in this thread explains it: the model for brokers is uber simple: they post bullish notes and price targets so that the company uses them for their next raise. When they conduct the raise, they earn some fat fees. Occasionally with some truly dreadful raises, the broker might earn some options so that’s something to look out for, but it hasn’t happened here. The broker will help the company get a guide for where the deal will be priced based on interest in the market (much like a real estate agent will provide you a price guide for your house) – but ultimately the market will decide the raise price.

    More broadly, I think there’s too much blame around about this raise. Anyone following the company knew they needed cash – it’s obvious from the quarterlies and the interviews floating around. No matter how ‘undervalued’ you think Galan might be, they have been trading cum-raise for months. The fact the market was dumb enough to bid it up ~20% based on the AKE merger was pure good fortune, and the company was reasonably smart to pull the pin on the raise when they did, because factoring in the discount to the raise, they ended up getting $30M at the same price as where they’d broadly been trading for most of March/April.

    If people are looking for an explanation for weakness in the share price since, I think it’s possibly because the raise was too small, given the capital expenditure they’ve flagged for the pilot plant. But that’s entirely dependent on the expanded permit coming through. They paid for that 1 December 2022 Crux Investor interview which was titled ‘Pilot Plant Permits Imminent for Local Sales’. Almost six months to the day nothing has come through yet, although JP did say in that video “we applied for the permit a month ago so we expect to have that approved in Q2 next year and construction should begin thereafter”. I can only consider that the purchase of long-lead items means the company believe the permit is in the bag, but it also means that they'll almost certainly have to raise again this year.

    Look at the lassonde curve and you can see exactly where Galan will be sitting for the next while. There is nothing untoward here, it is what it is.
    Last edited by mondyinvest: 30/05/23
 
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