The share price action this morning doesn't surprise me a great deal - likely yesterday there were plenty of traders who jumped in on the volume spike late in the day on the sniff of an announcement - I would have been one of them had I not spotted it just after the close. The faux pas let slip in the webinar recently that JP was off on a plane to London to sign important documents was the first hint and yesterdays last minute frenzy on close was the smoke was a sure sign something was about to drop and those in the know wanted to cash in. Those looking for a quick buck will be selling the news today, and 20% overnight is a dream pay day for a short term trader.
For the rest of us looking for a bit more - consider what we have here now:
A $250m market cap co, with a (soon to be) cash balance of close to half of that, 18 months away from free cashflow of $50-100m per year in stage 1, with a binding offtake for 100% of production with the world's largest mining company.
No export permit required.
Construction already underway.
A tier 1 resource already mapped out.
That alone should be sufficient to see this move from here to a A$1.5bn market cap as we reach stage 1 first production. (say US$50m EBITDA x P/E of 20, considering the future growth pipeline, convert to AUD$)
6 x current share price assuming no dilution (which today seems to have cemented)
Then we have stage 2 - 20ktpa of LiCl at say US$20k per tonne margin - US$400m EBITDA
At a 10x P/E that could justify a MC of A$6bn
25x current share price with no dilution
And if somehow we make it all the way to the stage 4 goal of 60ktpa without being gobbled up then we are looking at a possible market cap of A11b+ based on a conservative P/E of 6x by that stage.
That is around 44 x current share price
A long journey ahead but imo the hardest part was the first hurdle of stage 1 capex funding and offtake, and today that has well and truly been cleared.
Then we have the left field possibilities of a decent discovery in Greenbushes or James Bay, which could potentially provide options for funding future capex or development projects in their own right.
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Last
14.5¢ |
Change
-0.005(3.33%) |
Mkt cap ! $70.89M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
15.0¢ | 15.0¢ | 14.0¢ | $198.3K | 1.356M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
18 | 567612 | 14.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
14.5¢ | 6882 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
18 | 567612 | 0.140 |
7 | 565249 | 0.135 |
7 | 463000 | 0.130 |
4 | 320950 | 0.125 |
4 | 256000 | 0.120 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.145 | 6882 | 1 |
0.150 | 193967 | 5 |
0.155 | 260000 | 4 |
0.160 | 206028 | 11 |
0.165 | 447500 | 8 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 25/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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