GLN 0.00% 19.0¢ galan lithium limited

The share price action this morning doesn't surprise me a great...

  1. 1,850 Posts.
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    The share price action this morning doesn't surprise me a great deal - likely yesterday there were plenty of traders who jumped in on the volume spike late in the day on the sniff of an announcement - I would have been one of them had I not spotted it just after the close. The faux pas let slip in the webinar recently that JP was off on a plane to London to sign important documents was the first hint and yesterdays last minute frenzy on close was the smoke was a sure sign something was about to drop and those in the know wanted to cash in. Those looking for a quick buck will be selling the news today, and 20% overnight is a dream pay day for a short term trader.
    For the rest of us looking for a bit more - consider what we have here now:
    A $250m market cap co, with a (soon to be) cash balance of close to half of that, 18 months away from free cashflow of $50-100m per year in stage 1, with a binding offtake for 100% of production with the world's largest mining company.
    No export permit required.
    Construction already underway.
    A tier 1 resource already mapped out.

    That alone should be sufficient to see this move from here to a A$1.5bn market cap as we reach stage 1 first production. (say US$50m EBITDA x P/E of 20, considering the future growth pipeline, convert to AUD$)
    6 x current share price assuming no dilution (which today seems to have cemented)

    Then we have stage 2 - 20ktpa of LiCl at say US$20k per tonne margin - US$400m EBITDA
    At a 10x P/E that could justify a MC of A$6bn
    25x current share price with no dilution

    And if somehow we make it all the way to the stage 4 goal of 60ktpa without being gobbled up then we are looking at a possible market cap of A11b+ based on a conservative P/E of 6x by that stage.
    That is around 44 x current share price

    A long journey ahead but imo the hardest part was the first hurdle of stage 1 capex funding and offtake, and today that has well and truly been cleared.

    Then we have the left field possibilities of a decent discovery in Greenbushes or James Bay, which could potentially provide options for funding future capex or development projects in their own right.
 
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Mkt cap ! $90.04M
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19.0¢ 19.5¢ 19.0¢ $534.9K 2.793M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
8 525942 19.0¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
19.5¢ 77760 2
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Last trade - 16.10pm 14/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
Last
19.0¢
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19.0¢ 19.5¢ 19.0¢ 1073409
Last updated 15.47pm 14/06/2024 ?
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