The share price action this morning doesn't surprise me a great deal - likely yesterday there were plenty of traders who jumped in on the volume spike late in the day on the sniff of an announcement - I would have been one of them had I not spotted it just after the close. The faux pas let slip in the webinar recently that JP was off on a plane to London to sign important documents was the first hint and yesterdays last minute frenzy on close was the smoke was a sure sign something was about to drop and those in the know wanted to cash in. Those looking for a quick buck will be selling the news today, and 20% overnight is a dream pay day for a short term trader.
For the rest of us looking for a bit more - consider what we have here now:
A $250m market cap co, with a (soon to be) cash balance of close to half of that, 18 months away from free cashflow of $50-100m per year in stage 1, with a binding offtake for 100% of production with the world's largest mining company.
No export permit required.
Construction already underway.
A tier 1 resource already mapped out.
That alone should be sufficient to see this move from here to a A$1.5bn market cap as we reach stage 1 first production. (say US$50m EBITDA x P/E of 20, considering the future growth pipeline, convert to AUD$)
6 x current share price assuming no dilution (which today seems to have cemented)
Then we have stage 2 - 20ktpa of LiCl at say US$20k per tonne margin - US$400m EBITDA
At a 10x P/E that could justify a MC of A$6bn
25x current share price with no dilution
And if somehow we make it all the way to the stage 4 goal of 60ktpa without being gobbled up then we are looking at a possible market cap of A11b+ based on a conservative P/E of 6x by that stage.
That is around 44 x current share price
A long journey ahead but imo the hardest part was the first hurdle of stage 1 capex funding and offtake, and today that has well and truly been cleared.
Then we have the left field possibilities of a decent discovery in Greenbushes or James Bay, which could potentially provide options for funding future capex or development projects in their own right.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- Ann: Galan Secures Glencore Agreement For Offtake & Financing
The share price action this morning doesn't surprise me a great...
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 248 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add GLN (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
19.0¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $90.04M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
19.0¢ | 19.5¢ | 19.0¢ | $534.9K | 2.793M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
8 | 525942 | 19.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
19.5¢ | 77760 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 523837 | 0.190 |
5 | 321500 | 0.185 |
13 | 1215638 | 0.180 |
6 | 289639 | 0.175 |
3 | 235500 | 0.170 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.195 | 50000 | 1 |
0.200 | 291317 | 6 |
0.205 | 56968 | 2 |
0.210 | 104192 | 6 |
0.215 | 145400 | 4 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 14/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
|
|||||
Last
19.0¢ |
  |
Change
0.000 ( 1.20 %) |
|||
Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
19.0¢ | 19.5¢ | 19.0¢ | 1073409 | ||
Last updated 15.47pm 14/06/2024 ? |
Featured News
GLN (ASX) Chart |