It is concerning that there is no one giving you a reply on the fact that Glencore have GLN over a barrel for the phase 1 production finance and that obtaining an export license will not help GLN in obtaining finance since the LiCl is with an offtake with GLEN.
Just want to check how you know the following:
" Galan have effectively forward-sold the first five years of their 5.3ktpa production to Glencore, who will capture the margin upside and leave precious little on the table for Galan."
Do you know the terms at which GLN will sell to GLEN? How do you know there is precious little margin with GLN? If you are just being negative and there is good margin for GLN as we have previously shown you in your flawed NPV calcs a few weeks ago, I think there could be some margin for GLN.
Scenarios if GLN is stuck with GLEN on offtake of phase 1:
Scen 1: GLEN is actually a willing partner and keen to be part of phase 2 but is struggling to find an investor since GLN LiCL can not be exported. If having an export license frees up this constrained GLEN could assist in obtaining finance and then also be partner for phase 2.
Scen 2: GLEN is assholes just trying to screw GLN. They would not be part of phase 2. GLN then approaches an international partner with a deal that if they provide finance for phase 1 then they will be offtake partner for phase 2 and GLN should have enough FCF from phase 1 production to pay the loan interest as we have previously shown. I am sure there would be quite a few Chinese or Japanese/Korean investors for that. After 5 years they would then also have phase 1 offtakes. How good is that?
So I think even though GLN have a binding agreement for phase 1 with GLEN they now have a clearer path in obtaining funding for phase 1 whether GLEN is playing ball or not.
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