This is the highly detailed rationale of my "they need to get bailed out by the macro" comment. They are pretty bereft of non-macro tailwinds and it is very hard to see how another CR doesn't come about prior to Taurus giving them their marching orders. Toho might try to salvage something, or another operator might come in, but again who does that without Taurus being restructured / given a haircut and exited. Either way firing management now in this dead time between cap raises also seems low impact so you know there is another quarter of management ineptitude to flow as well. I am fascinated by the buyers that are still lined up given a macro bailout is best done directly (currency and metal price punting) and knowing that in the near term, barring something extremely left field, a non-Toho buyer is a remote chance at any price above zero.
It seems as though anyone buying now is punting on a micro bailout and I can't work out what people think that is going to be. Grades and volumes are just going to magically correct?? Maybe but the scale of the correction to avoid another nearish term CR seems pretty optimistic. Even then at what price level is the exit targeted at? What return are people expecting for the significant risk that is embedded in this? 3-4 bags?? Is that realistic?
Does anyone want to share their bull thesis?
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