FAR 2.00% 49.0¢ far limited

Ann: Gambia Drilling on Target for Q4, page-21

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    Based on these numbers:

    Probability all hit oil = 0.25 * 0.16 * 0.29 * 0.36 * 0.07 * 0.12 = 0.0035% (i.e. 35 in a million chance)

    Probability none hit oil = 0.75 * 0.84 * 0.71 * 0.64 * 0.93 * 0.88 = 23.4%

    Probability at least one hits = 100% - probability none hit = 76.6%
 
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