(New post as table formatting was ruined)
Ok so this is my updated valuation with the new GoT title. Please let me know if there is anything wrong with the numbers or assumptions. All the data was done on my own and i use AI to do the final formatting. I have also assumed a wishlist count of 1m for the GoT game. I believe this number will be higher as i believe the hype will be greater than MOUSE so i thought i would be conservative here.
All sales are done for PC only and do not take into account console sales (for MOUSE)

PLY valuation refresh — adding the Game of Thrones kicker

TL;DR• My original numbers (below) assumed MOUSE: P.I. for Hire only – before PlaySide surprised the market with a Game of Thrones PC RTS (War for Westeros).• Even on a conservative 500k PC unit outcome for GoT the stock screens cheap at ~38-55¢ (vs 18-19¢ today).• A solid hit (700k-1m units) drives fair value into the 60-70¢ band.• Clean balance sheet: ~A$15m net cash post-FY25 spend, no debt.

Recap – MOUSE-only valuation (pre-GoT)

Conservative (300k units): A$5.0m net revenue to PLY → Total FY revenue $45m → EBITDA $9m → Share price 26-37¢

Moderate (500k units): A$8.4m net revenue to PLY → Total FY revenue $48m → EBITDA $9.6m → Share price 27-40¢

Optimistic (700k units): A$11.8m net revenue to PLY → Total FY revenue $52m → EBITDA $10.4m → Share price 29-42¢

(409m shares; adds 15m cash; platform fee 30%; PLY keeps 60% thereafter - THIS 60% IS AN ASSUMPTION WE DO NOT KNOW THE SPLIT RATIO)

MOUSE sits #24 on Steam wishlists – ~1m wishlists steamdb.info

Why GoT matters

War for Westeros (PC-only, 2026) is 100% owned by PlaySide; every post-Steam-cut dollar drops to PLY's top line (royalty to HBO/WB assumed inside cost base).

Recent strategy benchmarks:

Manor Lords (2024 EA): 2m+ units in 3 weeks gamedeveloper.com - City-builder viral hit

Total War: Warhammer III (2022): ~3.4m owners gamalytic.com - Top-tier fantasy IP

Cities: Skylines II (Oct 2023): 1m copies by Feb 2024 vgchartz.com - City builder, 4-month performance

Crusader Kings III (Sept 2020): 1m first month, 4m lifetime paradoxinteractive.com - Deep niche, long tail potential

Company of Heroes 3 (2023): ~0.76m owners gamalytic.com - Mixed reception

Dune: Spice Wars (2023): ~0.5m owners gamalytic.com - Established IP, closest comp – GoT sits in the sweet spot with broader appeal than most. Dune: Spice Wars sets the conservative floor – established sci-fi IP, RTS gameplay, premium pricing but cleared only 500k due to niche appeal. GoT has massively broader fanbase and mainstream recognition. Dune also had a trailer released 3 years ago which received 1.4m views as opposed to GoT trailer 1.5m on IGN YouTube channel. Note this is during a massive increase in Dune viewership due to the recent release of the movies.

Wishlist conversion insight: Frostpunk 2 has 2m wishlists with analysts expecting 500k-1m first month sales, suggesting strong wishlist to sales conversion for anticipated strategy titles.

Updated valuation grid (MOUSE 500k held constant, GoT variable)

500k units (base case): GoT net revenue $21m → FY26 total revenue $69m → EBITDA $13.9m → EV $139-208m → Market cap $154-223m → Share price 38-55¢

700k units: GoT net revenue $29m → FY26 total revenue $78m → EBITDA $15.6m → EV $156-234m → Market cap $171-249m → Share price 42-61¢

1m units: GoT net revenue $42m → FY26 total revenue $90m → EBITDA $18.1m → EV $181-271m → Market cap $196-286m → Share price 48-70¢

Assumptions: PC price A$60, Steam cut 30%, no console uplift yet, 409m shares.

Why the rerate could stick

Clean capital structure: ~A$15m cash, zero debt; dilution risk low while projects finish.

Operating leverage: FY25 restructure strips ~A$5m opex; every dollar of GoT revenue is high-margin.

Comparable precedent: Dune: Spice Wars (established IP, RTS) hit 500k units. GoT's brand power + 1m wishlists argue the 500k floor is realistic, with significant upside potential.