CXO 1.79% 14.3¢ core lithium ltd

My understanding of the terms:Referenced to market price - There...

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    My understanding of the terms:
    Referenced to market price
    - There may be a discount factor applied to the market price but as a confidential contract we don't know this %. Hopefully it is close to 100% of market price.
    Market price for 6.0% Spod - This sets the reference point. While we don't know the source used, it needs to be one that CXO can readily access and is sufficiently reliable that both CXO and Ganfeng will be happy using it.
    Adjusted for actual Li2O content - The higher the lithium concentration in the ore, the higher the price for each ton. This basically says that if CXO were to supply 5.4% Spod ore, they would get 90% of the price of supplying 6.0% Spod ore. That said, the adjustment factor may not be linear.
    Market price - the contract should say how the market price is established, but that's another of the confidential contract terms. It does however mean that CXO is receiving the upside of the market price increasing as all the reported "market prices" are increasing.
    Floor price - Even if lithium prices collapse CXO will still receive this minimum price. This is however not free, and it will be why the contract is referenced to market price. Having this clause ensures CXO is viable even in the unlikely event of a lithium price collapse (assuming the contract can be enforced). It also means that this 75ktpa of ore is likely to be sold at slightly under 100% of market price.

    If CXO starts providing revenue and profitability guidance then backward engineered guesses at the contract features may be able to be made, but there are at least 3 moving parts. This contract, the Yahua contract and ore beyond 150ktpa that will be sold on spot markets. For me the key is that there is no reference to a ceiling price. CXO's April 2019 Yahua announcement noted a floor and ceiling price for the first two years. Given the huge increase in prices, this ceiling may have been, or is close to being hit (but it is only for two years).

    If the market price keeps on going up, CXO keeps on getting progressively higher prices on both this and the ore sold at market so at least 60% is linked to market prices.
 
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