I genuinely look at my investment as an integrate titanium...

I genuinely look at my investment as an integrate titanium pigment play that has a cracking V and Fe product. 60/30/10 revenue split.

I’m in treasury (ie. close debt facilities) so I understand the scrutiny the debt side of the funding stack will assess a project at. It’s not that the number a BFS spits out. Put it this way, if Roskill are saying long term price of V is USD8/lb, in such a small and opaque market that is V, they are modelling at below USD5/lb to stress test various economic scenarios. They will consider the forward looking positive pricing impact of VRFB but also take into account other potential negative market leavers and apply risk +/- multiples to cash flows ie) the likelihood of niobium substitutes or long term price of Fe62 resulting in heightening V supply from Chinese slag.

Although positive on VRFB, and have been for a decade, I see it being a long slow burn. There won’t be a firecracker moment like EV. That uptake will be even slower if V pricing remains where it is now or higher. Apart for massive installation like in Dalian, I see the majority of initial stage uptake of VRFB being small scale – think VRFB instead of diesel generators in remote areas. The cost with a high V price is prohibitive. And I think muppets at most levels of government will continue to gravitate towards lithium installations even though we all know the 10 fold benefits of a VFRB.

Happy to be exposed to single revenue streams in bulk commodities like Iron ore or Potash as their scale can offset poor margins in a depressed market however somewhat cautious in strategic metals with small markets that are controlled by China. I’m deep into a graphite play with one of your fellow investors and that scares the shit out of me. Great project, great people, great economics but China controls graphite. Similar to V, a very positive supply and demand profile however so was Rare Earths in 2011. Poor old Lynas….perhaps burnt from that experience.

Hence a choice to be a perceived riskier project in terms of higher capex, but IMO a far better proposition from diversified revenue, technology, existing infrastructure access, and cost of production.

As a recent preso calls it, Gen3 technology that maximizes value and minimizes waste from 1 tonne of ore. Financiers eat those type of ESG credentials up. Massive CAPEX but also financiers associated with it that are well known for funding big projects.

Anyway, I think any striving developer has an extremely tough 12-24 months head with the cost pressure flowing through. Whilst commodity prices are high, inflation is high which means capex is high. Great if you are producing, not so great if rattling the tin and looking for a labor force.