Ann: Gemini 4 Well Campaign IP30 Production on Target, page-17

Consider these recent comments from Goehring & Rozen:
As the market begins to realize how tight balances truly are and that OPEC spare capacity can be entirely absorbed by demand growth and stagnating non-OPEC+ supply, investor psychology will shift dramatically.page 2 :The foundation for the upcoming oil crisis is now firmly set in place. The world is re-opening and global oil demand is recovering strongly. By the beginning of 2022, global oil demand should be making new highs. Non-OPEC oil supply has fallen by over 2 mm barrels per day from its 2019 peak and non-OPEC oil supply growth will turn negative as we progress through this decade. A structural gap will soon emerge between supply and demand. As early as Q4 of 2022, demand will approach world oil-pumping capability — a first in 160 years of oil history. The ramifications will be huge and the investment implications monumental.page 17Tightness in the US natural gas market is beginning to manifest itself in low inventory levels. After having started the year at a 200 bcf surplus to the five-year seasonal average, US inventories now stand at nearly a 200 bcf deficit. Given the current trajectory, our models suggest we could end the injection season at 3.2 tcf of gas representing a 400 bcf deficit, or 700 bn cubic feet lower than the same time last year. If we are correct, inventories run the risk of starting the withdrawal season at the second lowest level in fifteen years. At that point, any bout of cold weather this coming winter would likely lead to a price spike.Prices have been firming and currently stand at $3.60 per mmcf, over 40% higher than the start of the year and more than double this time last year. In fact, Henry Hub natural gas, which normally experiences price spikes in the winter due to heating demand, is at its highest seasonal level since 2014. Despite the rally, there has been little in the way of a drilling responsepage 18While supply has been challenged, demand remains extremely strong. Global demand for LNG is robust as weather events and strong economic demand from China and others has led to surging prices and tight markets. Notably, high temperatures across Asia have led to strong demand for electricity to power air conditioning in Bangladesh and India (a sign of the S-Curve). At the same time, Brazilian drought conditions have resulted in lower-than normal hydro availability. Global spot LNG prices averaged $14 per mmbtu, the highest levels since 2013 and above oil-linked parity. Exported US LNG has clearly had no problem being absorbed in the global market, despite having grown from nothing as recently as 2017 to an incredible 10 bcf/d today — up 3 bcf/d in the past year alone. As emerging countries become wealthier, they seek cleaner forms of power of which natural gas is the most effective. Gas bears have long argued that excess natural gas supply will eventually break the linkage between global LNG prices and oil prices that has long been central to long-term LNG contracts. The fact that spot LNG today trades above its oil-linked parity suggests to us the market remains very tight.Inventories are now beginning to get tight relative to seasonal averages and the US will likely enter the withdrawal season vulnerable to any bout of colder-than-normal weather. The great bull market in natural gas has begun.