sort of, I'm still working through my thoughts but I think they...

sort of, I'm still working through my thoughts but I think they quote a 22% decline rate somewhere but already they have dropped from 704 boe to 650, but in saying that the oil ratio as increased so that I'm guessing that the pressurized gas cap has been produced and the oil levels have stayed the same.

I would work on 330 days a year and 25% decline rate but even so they should still have a quick payback period, which means they should be drilling constantly so to get the volume out, secure the ground, leverage the infrastructure and spread the semi fixed salary costs of management / board across a wider revenue base.

One thing I haven't seen is their water handling capacity - AS the boe falls away does the water grow so they need to invest more in that, or does the oil % stay strong but just end up dribbling out?

The main questions I still have for everybody is why couldn't blackspur make a go of it - and don't just say low oil prices. I don't like it when they put out boe numbers and use oil pricing as the 6 x 1 ratio for gas does my head in especially when the gas price is well below a 6 x 1 ratio. The thing that gives me some comfort here is that Blackspur has stayed on board.

I didnt like the EV/2P comparison against COE, SXY etc as they don't sell their gas into the same market as COE / SXY so most of that is pointless. The Calina seems like a bizarre part of the puzzle - nobody seems to be valuing it at $85mil, no issues that it costs that to replace it, but replacement cost is not current value - will be interesting to see as it may have real large value, but limited buyers and they seem to have shown that they have no interest in developing any part of it. However as long as it costs nothing (500k a year) and the land is in good tenure then who cares - its optionality at its best. Ive invested in many in the past that promised awesome long life wells and lots of drilling slots, but none ever measured up - just look at most of the US similar fields, all driven by debt fueled binges. I like these guys and they present well, but they will need cheap debt, oil prices to stay where they are, falling drilling costs and luck (which could be Calima, gas prices sky high or anything else..)