with OPEX of $25M I believe ist more like 32000 tests.
I completely agree regarding the potential for the company. The company have always suggested that they are re-writing the GOLD standard for bladder cancer. It’s non invasive and highly accurate.
I would suggest within the next 3 years there may be either a take over offer or listing on the US exchange.
However I still think a CR is coming.
I mentioned in earlier posts the following
Essentially I pick that there is 3 months before another credit raise.
If the LCD comes through PEB can recognise 3.6M USD in revenue. $5.6M NZD. That doubles Revenue for the FY!
in conjunction to that they can negotiate a payment for the previous tests completed. (17000 tests). This has been invoiced but not paid as there is no LCD. This is $20M USD worth of tests produced. I don’t for one minute believe that PEB will bet the full amount but it shows the potential.
This years test (revenue not recognised) plus back log is Almost $25M NZD.
Size of the opportunity from the KP agreement I have roughly calculated based on the NZ number of tests.
NZ has 5M people, whist not all DHB’s are using PEB products let’s assume they are.
Lab throughput was 16,861 tests and 81% of those were commercial pay tests (=13,657 tests)
The US was 79% of total lab throughput (21% was NZ) so that equates roughly to 2868 paid tests in NZ
KP have 12 million people covered. If the numbers are assumed to be the same KP is 2.4 times bigger than NZ (6883 tests)
If the cost per test is similar to what has been agreed by Medicare ($760 US) then this has the potential to add $5.2M USD = $8.7M NZD.
This along with the current tests and those not paid could put revenue around $20M US.
Time will tell what the actual volume of tests will be however the current NZ, USA commercial Tests and CMS patients are almost break even at current levels.
This year should be very interesting and as always the LCD is critical.
At a value of 10x revenue the current MC of 200M is fair.”
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