I think between us we may have our FX rates mixed up .... Here is my calculations OPEX is NZ$ 25 million and each test is to be billed at US$ 760 (760 / 0.64) = NZ$ 1,187 per test. NZ$ 25,000,000 / NZ$ 1,187 = 21,061 test.
All a bit simplistic I grant you and the OPEX covers @ 16,000 tests so would need to be higher for the additional @4,000 to 5,000 tests. But good enough for the moment to determine that cash flow neutrality is somewhere between 21,000 and 23,000 tests per year in the US. With all the ducks in a line neither of those figures should be beyond the range of what could be achieved in the next 18 to 24 months. Currently we have 11 sales in the US, over an 18 month period that is @ 300 (recurring) tests sold per year per sales staff. What would be a reasonable assumption for the number of tests run by each urologist converted to CX Bladder ? 1 a week, 2 a week, I would imagine it is higher but lets say it is 2 per week. So the conversion of 1 urologists will result in @ 100 (recurring) tests sold per year. So to hit the additional 5,000 tests over an 18 month period you would need to "convert" @ 50 urologists, that is 4.5 per sales team member or @ 3 urologists per year per sales team member. That does not sound like a huge stretch to me. Time will tell.
Price at posting:
30.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
.... Here is my calculations OPEX is NZ$ 25 million and each test is to be billed at US$ 760 (760 / 0.64) = NZ$ 1,187 per test. NZ$ 25,000,000 / NZ$ 1,187 = 21,061 test.
