I don't think you are missing anything, fundamentally it is undervalued.
Before I spend too much time researching into potential investments, the prospects needs to meet my criteria for at least a 3:1 upside potential.
In the case of MZZ, they currently have apprx 850Koz. Following their scoping study, they are looking to increase their resource to extend the LOM and also increase the head grades. They are already progressing with all other works required to advance to the next stage of feasibility, so, I think their is a strong chance this will turn into a mine and start construction within the next 18 months.
They have plenty of targets, however, the style of mineralization here are not multi million oz deposits, so let's work of an aspirational target of an extra 350 Koz from the comming campaign.
Near Term Target Resource 1.2 Moz x $200/ev/oz = $240 Mil MC.
When you delve abit deeper, MZZ's production output is fairly similar to AMI, though, AMI is predominantly an underground deposit. AMI at it's peak last year has a Market Cap of circa $700 Mil. So that is a good indication of the real longer term potential.
So based on the above, MZZ ticks my box for a longer term hold of 12-18 months. I don't expect them to hit the target market cap of $240 Mil, but, if it achieves 60% of that target, still a good outcome, you'd have effectively doubled your investment.
If you wondering if the current SP is a good time to buy. I think so. It's oversold and below the 30day VMA.
However, from a short term trading perspective, these style of mineralization deposits won't excite the market as much intrusion style deposits. That is from drill announcements. However, when they announce their resource upgrade, that could be a near term cataylst. Honestly, who knows in the shorter term, but aslong as their is decent upside potential, at least a 3:1 upside return, in the current macro economic environment and strength of the sector, the odds are in your favour.
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