All good brother, I have a few haters on HC that disagree with my views and I disagree with his views on AME v.s. MDI. But i'm not going to respond as it is simply just a waste of time. Not the largest holding, but, I haven't sold a single unit of MDI!
Now for my views on AME
- They have a small resource base.
- AME does have a better land holding then MDI, not going to argue that one, but they aren't funded to explore and unlock the full potential there.
- Given AME's current position, they'll be drilling for at least the next 12 months likely 18 months with no clear path or strategy announced on their pathway to development.
- That is a very dangerous strategy because like i said, the ability to raise capital is the biggest risk and it may not be so easy to do so in another 18 months time.
- There has not been an ASX explorer in the past 10 years that has developed a mine in AUS with a (Brand New) stand alone processing plant and supporting infrastructure that is underpinned by small processing plant with a resource base less than 800Koz.
- At their current MC, they are way over valued and the upside potential is almost non existent. IMO, I'd be selling them at the current price level not buying
You can look at the MDI resource table. They have 6,343000 tonnes of ore (246,000 Koz) of open pittable resource. Assume only 85% of that is mine able. Based on the throughput capacity of their plant, they have 9 Years worth of reserves! That is enough to keep MDI very busy for a long long time. A 9 year time frame is a very long time!!! If you assume a net Margin of $1000/aud per oz you are looking at a non discounted NPAT of circa $200 Mil!.
Now based on the above do you think MDI are at all concerned about requiring AME's resource? Who needs who? Who is the one that fully permitted? AME was just a nice to have. You have to remember, Argonaut is working for MDI not the other way around. AME must have made it clear that they wanted to go at this alone and we needed the cash to keep the works running on the field in preparation for a restart. I feel for those who are not able to decipher this information or for those who are concerned, afraid to give Rick a call regarding the status of the FS.
The market could change dramatically in another 5 years. What do you think is going to happen to the POG & investment sentiment when the period of low interest rates end? The Answer...the same thing happens every other bloody time... All explorers who have yet to monetize their assets will become stranded...That is the Truth..
At the end of the day dude, until their is an announcement that the FS is a positive outcome, I'm at risk of losing my $. However, if positive and once production restarts, there is an easy 4-5x ROI for me. I'll take those odds any day of the week.
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