FM3 firstmac mortgage funding trust no. 4 series 1-2020

Some of the research reports which you can find on their website...

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    Some of the research reports which you can find on their website touch on this, however, they do also qualify that it is just their best guess. For the ultimate scale of what is being defined at Hemi, I think the production output target is going to be huge! probably a plant sized over 9 Mtpa.

    The problem with capital cost at the moment is Inflation! Most the components and cost that form part of the capex is directly impacted by inflation. . An operation this size requires a workforce the size of an army and FIFO supplementary labour is really expensive. So prices are artificially high!! This is a problem. If POG does not rise significantly and it needs to be higher than the rate of the bullshit CPI measure of inflation otherwise it is going to kill alot of feasibilities. You can always price in some inflation but can never price in deflation or normalization of cost in the future. It is just a win you take if it does happen but you take on all risk of rising cost.

    So my rough and dirty guess is capital cost in the order of $800Mil. But if the cost of steel, labour, crude oil etc rises? doubles? i don't know, slap another 25-30% ontop of my estimate. POG needs to surge alot higher.
 
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