GNX 0.00% 26.5¢ genex power limited

Very clever indeed. The fact that they are expanding their...

  1. 724 Posts.
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    Very clever indeed. The fact that they are expanding their pre-FID pipeline for zero cost today is genius. They have no money right now to develop anything, yet they have managed to secure the development rights for Bulli Creek today with no payments until FY25 when KPH is gushing cash. No doubt, they will be paying a very high premium for that arrangement. But, they have also managed to keep all the upside with Genex (and any JV partners that may come along for the capital financing) owning the full asset. So essentially they'll need to pay royalties for it in the future.

    While the structure of the deals with EA and Solar Choice makes their assets less valuable to the market in a takeover situation, it still adds a lot to their pipeline. I previously did a comparison with the CWP sale which I feel is quite similar. You can see below that when I add the 400MW (just stage 1) to the pre-FID pipeline, it adds around $60m to the potential EV for takeover comparisons. Sounds like a lot considering it is so far into the future, but it's just an illustrative example. Previously Genex was trading around 34% discount to CWP valuations, and now that would be around 51%. The truth probably lies in the middle somewhere.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4579/4579804-f3933c9c5453e310ff236d7a976981ea.jpg

    GLTAH.
 
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