I’d be focussing on how positive news over the last 6-9 months...

I’d be focussing on how positive news over the last 6-9 months hasn’t been forcing the SP up. Look closely at the volumes traded and the clear level of resistance/selling at 2.5c to 2.3c. Certain sellers seemed to be liquidating in anticipation of being refilled at 2.2c (really 1.8c when you factor in dilution).

If you look at the trading with a neutral view, it seems that the market simply isn’t interested in ECS. When you look at it, now knowing that a raise at 2.2c was planned, it’s relatively clear that certain sellers may have been trading with an ‘educated’ outlook… All smells too fishy for me.