Hi Bocky 71i Am going to do an update on the figures i did that...

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seawindpilot

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18/06/24

21:55

Post #: 74378705
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Originally posted by Bocky71: ↑

Hi Babayaga,

Here are my calculations for Paducah. I haven't taken into account the price of the embodied conversion in the calculations. Silex may have already included that in their cost of production. If there is extra value in the conversion then that is higher estimates than I am making. I think $100 per pound is a lowish estimate given the contracts that are being signed currently.
----------------------------------------------------------
Silex Price Estimate (Uranium 100/ pound)

Paducah Tails facilityLicensed to produce 5 million pounds (equivalant) of yellowcake as UF6 for 30 years
Value $100 / pound Cost price (all in) including financing plant $25 / pound Profit US$75 / pound
Total tails revenue US$500,000,000Silex receives direct royalty of 7 - 12% of plant revenue (assume 10.5%) = US$52.5m ($80m AUD)Paducah Plant profit (after royalty) = $75 x 5,000,000 pounds = US375 million Less $52.5m Silex
Royalty

Profit after royalty US$322,000,000 or AUD$483,000,000 (PresumimgCameco TO purchase $25% more of GLE Silex) remaining share of %25 would equal $120,000,000 AUDTotal Silex revenues $200 Million AUD or 85c per share @ $100/lb

Add 6MSU plant at $150 / swu = $900m USD revenue
= $1.35 Billion AUD

Assume 10% for Silex royalty = 135m AUD
+ 25% share of total profit. Big guess total proft $500m AUD after royalty. So total profit for SLX from 6MSW plant = $ 260m AUD

So far thats $460m AUD / year
Or $2 per share roughly

HALEU is pretty difficult to estimate. Silex loses efficiency as the enrichment level goes up from my understanding. 15 Tons HALEU maybe worh $300m US$ (at $20000/kg)

So that is another $30m royalty lets says $45m AUD + with royalty and profit from 25% GLE ownership. GUESS $ 75m AUD

Total $535m Australian Dollars per year.

Now I am very excited about the price of Uranium so can see prices much higher than $100 per pound. One billion AUD is conceivable at $200/lb but I am not saying this is the most likely outcome

I also wont be surprised if they start transporting tails in the form of UF6 from Portsmouth and other locations also.

This is a fun estimate, I know nothing about US tax rates, depreciation schedules tc so I will leave that to any accountants out there.

Comments welcome....

Bocky71
MGAS

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Hi Bocky 71

i Am going to do an update on the figures i did that and i put in the Investment Thesis thread some time ago. I will post that over on that thread once i have finished the exercise. Can i ask you to re-post your excellent message here over on that thread so that we can try and keep relevant subject together for ease of reference.
SWP

SLX Price at posting: $5.29 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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