Just thought i'd update my tables has been a few months for current REO price and the new JORC inputs.
I've just done 2 variations for now which alter the grade. Essentially simulating/showcasing the change in expected revenues for 2 grades they presented in the recent JORC announce.
1) being at 4000ppm which was referenced as the 3000ppm cut-off for 47mT.
2) being at the 2590ppm JORC grade reference as 1000ppm cut-off for 2051mT
The assumptions above utilise the average bulk recovery results.
Revenues use SMM spot pricing.
Cash cost/mined/t opex is obviously an unknown and the figure used here is referencing other feasibility studies figures from similar projects. Obviously the MEI and in turn VMM scoping study will perhaps provide a better reference point moving forward as a more current figure.
I guess the intent of the post is to show the change of revenue and perhaps rough economical cut-off for grade. 2590ppm would just be marginal (with no downstream processing). 4000ppm would be profitable.
Ultimately it know is a case of what size resource and what grade can they prove up. Yes 47mT exists as very high grade but when it comes to mining an arbitrary cut-off grade doesn't always then lend itself to a mineable area. That said, i do believe that across the deposits they will be easily able to find various areas and deposit with a collective high grade area/zone.
It would stand to reason that even at todays REO prices (where companies like Lynas aren't even making money) anywhere around 3000ppm would be robust enough to generate a profit and therefore a feasibility study with it as its input grade would be fine. I however suspect that they will target maybe 3500ppm - but that is all dependent on the future drilling and if large areas of resource at that grade can be sourced. (Blue line being a theoretical cut-off using current REO pricing)
Additionally, this does not take into consideration downstream optionality which in turn would also help the economical outputs of the project should they be in JV in separation facilities and therefore able to sell at 99% purity.
I guess i'm in the camp of thinking that the REO price will improve from todays levels given most of the supply sources are currently underwater or on the edge. The deposits still being mined at a profit (and therefore at the lowest end of the cost curve) are Bayan Obo and a handful of the ionic clays in china/myanmar.
Noting that the IAC in china and Myanmar, are expected to deplete towards 2030. Noting that 90% of global sourced HREO come from IACs. Therefore whilst the Nd Pr prices may remain slightly more static given the alternative supply sources, the HREO i think will see a larger price spike and those with economics underpinned to Tb, Dy, Lu, Ho etc etc will see a greater increase in their economics as opposed to those strictly leveraged to Nd, Pr which will be a more competitive landscape. Whilst the composition within the complex is more Nd/Pr laden there is still a decent portion (35% by revenue) ex NdPr. If my theory is correct as overall pricing improves i expect HREO pricing to improve at greater rate and therefore we may see that revenue component be more 50/50. Hence those with better exposure to revenue from HREO would seek to benefit more from this pricing increase.
Posting very little on socials of late, tired of trolls and limited time. but still lurking in the background.
Great movements today. Lets hope for increased REO pricing. The work the team is doing to progress the asset has all been pretty spot on and exceptionally quick TBH.
SF2TH
(20min delay)