Abstract
I explore the determinants of mortgage defaults in Australia. Specifically, I use a novel two-stage hazard model to examine evidence for the ‘double-trigger’ hypothesis – that defaults require both an inability to repay the loan and the loan to be in negative equity. My results are broadly consistent with the double-trigger hypothesis. Ability-to-pay factors, such as regional unemployment rates and borrowers' repayment-to-income ratios, are found to be correlated with loans entering arrears. Transitions from arrears to foreclosure, on the other hand, are more closely linked to the extent of negative equity.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2020/2020-03.html
Ann: GMA Q122 APRA GIILS, page-5
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