Thanks for sharing. An illuminating read.I've always believed in...

Thanks for sharing. An illuminating read.

I've always believed in the 'double-trigger' theory that it would take a combination of high unemployment and major high price depreciation before material claims are made. But this paper gives the rich data and detailed insights.

It is interesting that many of the past losses were in regional areas with mining busts. The strongest factors identified were repayment buffers, negative equity and unemployment. I can't recall a time when Australia has been in better shape across these three factors. The mining industry isn't doing too badly at the moment either! I'd love to get the author's view on how much of Genworth's $1.6bn in unearned premium will end up in claims! Must be pretty small.