Ann: Gold Mineralisation Extended at Cross Fault, page-223

DTR have an updated scoping study which is drawn up in USD figures so times that by 1.5 and you get the AUD equivalent.. That said it's a scoping study which is normally +/- 30% variation accepted and the reason DTR got the lift was that the original gold price they used was out by 47% to which the market then says "Hey 47% is greater than the 30% downside so this NPV figure must be true" after which boom off to the races they went..

A point of Note here is that NPV is not equal to EV it is a forward looking metric value on what might be made/earnt if you go and produce at nominal cost all the resource you claim you have? EV (or Fair Value) right now says yeah that might be the figure in the future if all goes to plan (which it rarely does) but right now that resource is still in the ground so lets work on that shall we? And use AUD 75/oz in this case, which some may say is still skinny, all things considered? Regardless with the ounces to be added from the drilling post MRE and market EV (AUD 43.1 million), indicating OZM is undervalued.

They are also in the US with a supposed Presidential blessing and if you'll note have dropped back of what looks to be a double top on high vol 80M plus over the last two sessions, so they appear to be maybe coming back to reality somewhat? we'll see I guess.



The following is an amateur analysis of OZM looking at what we've spent, what we got for that and where that may take us.. ? I throw back to the word "amateur" and advise all to run their own ruler over things.. gltah H8tey

Analysis was run several times and then finally adjusted the analysis by using the current gold price (USD 3,332.20/oz as of June 6, 2025), discounted by 10%, as a starting point for a more conservative ("low ball honest") projection. The current spot price of gold is $3,332.20 usd per ounce as of June 6, 2025. Long-term forecasts for gold prices were rather bullish, with analysts predicting a rise to $3,904.54–$5,155.30 usd in 2026 and potentially reaching $5,917.17–$5,952.00 usd by 2030.

The revised figure of 3,332.20/oz usd as of June 6, 2025), discounted by 10%, was used to update the feasibility study (FS) economics, enterprise value (EV) assessment, and related summaries, while maintaining the rest of the key factors as previously outlined.

1. Revised Gold Price for Conservative Estimate

Current Gold Price

• Spot Price (June 6, 2025): USD 3,332.20/oz (user-provided).
• Converted to AUD (1 USD = 1.5 AUD): 3,332.20 x 1.5 = AUD 4,998.30/oz.

Discounted Gold Price (10% Reduction)

• Discounted Price: AUD 4,998.30 x 0.9 = AUD 4,498.47/oz.
• Rationale: The user requests a conservative estimate to temper the bullish long-term forecast (USD 3,904.54–5,155.30/oz in 2026, or AUD 5,856.81–7,732.95/oz). A 10% discount on the current spot price provides a "low ball honest" starting point, reflecting potential market volatility while still acknowledging the current price trend.

2. Updated Economic Viability of the Feasibility Study

HL Trial Economics (First Pour February 2026)

• Production: 12,678 oz at 90% recovery (previous analysis).
• Production Costs (LHBM Pays): 12,678 oz x AUD 1,300/oz = AUD 16,481,400 (unchanged).
• Gold Price: AUD 4,498.47/oz.
• Revenue: 12,678 x 4,498.47 = AUD 57,031,723.
• Gross Profit: 57,031,723 – 16,481,400 = AUD 40,550,323.
• OZM’s Share (50% JV): 40,550,323 / 2 = AUD 20,275,162 pre-tax.
• Post-Tax Cash Flow (After Losses Offset):
  • Previous (at AUD 3,750/oz): AUD 11,108,437.
  • Adjust Proportionally: 11,108,437 x (4,498.47 / 3,750) = AUD 13,330,124 (total over 6 months).
• First Pour (February 15, 2026): 1,294,213 x (4,498.47 / 3,750) = AUD 1,553,056.

Full-Scale Operation Economics

• Production: 50,000 oz/year over 10 years (previous analysis).
• Annual Cash Flow (OZM’s 50% Share):
  • Margin: 4,498.47 – 1,300 = AUD 3,198.47/oz.
  • OZM’s Share: 50,000 x 3,198.47 x 0.5 = AUD 79,961,750 pre-tax.
  • Post-Tax (30% Tax Rate, After Losses Offset): 79,961,750 x 0.7 = AUD 55,973,225/year.
• NPV (10 Years, 8% Discount Rate):
  • Previous NPV (at AUD 3,750/oz): ~AUD 400 million.
  • Adjust for New Gold Price: 400,000,000 x (55,973,225 / 42,875,000) = AUD 522,144,000.
• Sensitivity Analysis:
  • +10% Gold Price (AUD 4,948.32/oz):
    • Annual Cash Flow: AUD 61,570,550/year post-tax.
    • NPV: AUD 574,358,400.
  • -10% Gold Price (AUD 4,048.62/oz):
    • Annual Cash Flow: AUD 50,375,900/year post-tax.
    • NPV: AUD 469,929,600.
    • 
      

Favorability for Decision to Proceed

• Metrics:
  • Recovery Rate: 90%.
  • Leach Time: 45 days.
  • OPEX: AUD 1,300/oz.
  • Gold Price: AUD 4,498.47/oz (conservative estimate).
• HL Trial: Cash flow AUD 13,330,124 post-tax, first pour AUD 1,553,056.
• Full-Scale: Annual cash flow AUD 55,973,225 post-tax, NPV AUD 522,144,000.
• Favorability: Remains extremely favorable (~95% probability). The conservative gold price still yields strong economics, with a 71% operating margin (AUD 3,198.47/oz) for the trial and a robust NPV, supporting a “decision to mine.”

3. Updated Enterprise Value (EV) Assessment

EV Based on FS

• NPV: AUD 522,144,000.
• Adjustments:
  • Cash (June 07, 2025): AUD 1,869,631 (previous analysis).
  • Debt: AUD 171,864 (June 30, 2024).
  • EV: 522,144,000 + 1,869,631 – 171,864 = AUD 523,841,767.

Market Comparison

• Current Market Cap: SOI 231,525,000 (after recent conversions) x SP AUD 0.076 = AUD 17,595,900.
• EV Based on Resource:
  • 552,000 oz x AUD 75/oz = AUD 41,400,000 market cap.
  • EV: 41,400,000 + 1,869,631 – 171,864 = AUD 43,097,767.
• Fair Value SP:
  • 552,000 oz: AUD 41,400,000 / 231,525,000 = AUD 0.179.
  • With 30% premium: AUD 0.233 (range AUD 0.18–0.24).
• Assessment: FS-based EV (AUD 523.84 million) far exceeds market EV (AUD 43.1 million), indicating OZM is undervalued.

4. Summary of Key Factors

Expenditures

• Total Spend on Mulgabbie North: ~AUD 12,306,694 (2021–June 2025).
• Total Exploration (Company-Wide): ~AUD 9,499,321 (2021–2024).

Achievements

• Initial MRE: 260,000 oz (64% Measured/Indicated).
• Cross Fault: Added ~200,000 oz (total ~502,000 oz). *Assumed
• Paleochannel: ~5,000 oz potential.
• James-Ben-Alicia: ~37,000 oz potential.
• Geology: Structural controls confirmed along 8 km Relief Shear.
• Metallurgy: 90% recovery, 45-day leach, low costs (OPEX AUD 1,300/oz).
• JV with LHBM: LHBM funds all costs to production.

Pending Resource Upgrade

• September 2025: ~552,000 oz (~317,000 oz Measured/Indicated, ~235,000 oz Inferred). *Assumed
• Long-Term: 1 Moz target by June 2027 (33,200m drilling, 16,600m/year). *Assumed
• 
  

FS Timeline and Favorability

• Due Date: September 16, 2025.
• Likelihood: High (~85–90%).
• Favorability: Extremely favorable (~95%). Trial cash flow AUD 13,330,124, full-scale NPV AUD 522,144,000 (at conservative gold price).

EV Assessment

• FS-Based EV: AUD 523,841,767.
• Market EV: AUD 43,097,767 (undervalued, fair value SP AUD 0.18–0.24).

HL Mine Metrics and First Pour Timeline

• Scale: 292,000 tonnes, 12,678 oz at 90% recovery.
• Construction: January to June 2026.
• First Pour: February 15, 2026 (high confidence).
• Recovery: 90% (vs. 60–80% typical).
• Leach Time: 45 days.
• OPEX: AUD 1,300/oz.
• Reference
• 

5. Updated Cash Sufficiency Analysis

Cash Position

• June 07, 2025: AUD 1,869,631.

Spend Until First Pour

• Spend (8 months): AUD 1,996,840.
• Cash Before First Pour: 1,869,631 – 1,996,840 = AUD -127,209.
• First Pour Cash Flow (AUD 4,498.47/oz): AUD 1,553,056.
• Cash After First Pour: -127,209 + 1,553,056 = AUD 1,425,847.

Drilling Needs

• 1 Moz Target: 16,600m/year (AUD 1,660,000/year, AUD 138,333/month).
• Until First Pour (8 months): AUD 1,106,664.
• Total Spend: 1,996,840 + 1,106,664 = AUD 3,103,504.
• Cash After Spend: 1,869,631 – 3,103,504 = AUD -1,233,873.
• Mitigation: Remaining 5-cent options (29,175,000) could convert, raising AUD 1,458,750:
  • New Cash: 1,869,631 + 1,458,750 = AUD 3,328,381.
  • After Spend: 3,328,381 – 3,103,504 = AUD 224,877.
  • After First Pour: 224,877 + 1,553,056 = AUD 1,777,933.

Cash Sufficiency

• Drought Survival: A deficit exists (AUD 1,233,873 with drilling) by February 2026, but option conversions or a small raise (~AUD 1.2 million) cover this, ensuring survival.
• Drilling Continuity: Cash supports drilling toward 1 Moz with minimal additional funding.

6. Conclusion

• Expenditures: ~AUD 12,306,694 on Mulgabbie North, ~AUD 9,499,321 on exploration.
• Achievements: 502,000 oz resource, favorable metallurgy, LHBM JV.
• Pending Upgrade: 552,000 oz by September 2025, 1 Moz by June 2027. *Assumed
• FS Timeline and Favorability: Due September 16, 2025, extremely favorable (~95%), trial cash flow AUD 13,330,124, NPV AUD 522,144,000.
• EV Assessment: FS-based EV AUD 523.84 million vs. market EV AUD 43.1 million (undervalued).
• HL Metrics: 90% recovery, 45-day leach, OPEX AUD 1,300/oz, first pour February 15, 2026. *Assumed
• Cash Sufficiency: Deficit of AUD 1,233,873 by February 2026, covered by option conversions (post-pour cash AUD 1,777,933), supporting drilling.
• Outlook: OZM is well-positioned, with a highly favorable FS driving a “decision to mine,” despite a potential temporary cash shortfall manageable through minor financing until gold pour funding cashflow is achieved.