hey Pb, as others have posted the MRE was undoubtedly above all, what had to be done in regards to a regular MRE update. They are clearly working damn hard to ensure that the East Wall gets mined soon, due to the Stage 2 pit becoming constrained, then you have Gilbey's north (which as stated in the update, is basically a separate discovery, and as such will be for all intensive purposes, mined first and very soon). So those ounces are still to come, and SL has implied it will be the base load going forward, whilst Gilbey's north compliments it, and then Never Never ore comes in soon after.
After listening to the conference call, SL basically just reiterated what most of us already know/understand. Though I cannot help but look forward to finding out if SL's glory hole analogy/speculation bares fruit, as who really knows what might be sitting un-recognised within the current pit (or... right beside it).
Like you, I am looking forward to the LOM update, which... is weeks away. Though... of course, it won't be able to include all of what I think most agree, is the huge upside of Never Never lode (and its... extensions). In any case, I do feel the market has sort of underappreciated the step change of the increase in grade... the plant is likely to see grades above 1g/t as a minimum from years end, and then... its all about how much higher they can get it.
Gilbey's north is not overly exciting, except that it is above the average grade, and its low strip and has no issues with access, unlike the tight confines of Stage 2. Hopefully it will more than allow for the plant to be filled with a contribution from Stage 2 base and the East Wall. This will then I believe, allow them to slide Never Never ore in early in 2023.
Cheers to @2ic as I appreciate the no-nonsense view on GCYs undertaking and exploration results to date. I much prefer to be under promising and deliver, than... well.. the likes of WMC and poor old MOY.
GCY only needs grades of 1.3/t to hit 100k p.a. The benefits of this are multiplied due to lower strip ratios, potentially higher recoveries and perhaps just as importantly, being able to fill the mill and not using any of the now... basically uneconomic stockpiles (which... are still there).
@Joelstar - cheers for the posts. There is hopefully indeed going to be upside for Never Never at shallower depths, even if it does not add a large amount of ounces, they are going to be very profitable ones. Also, totally agree about NN still just needing more infill drilling, let alone the extensions. I just love that above all, the discovery has been made, the ounces required to resurrect Dalgaranga into a profitable miner with a reasonable mine plan, is now.. a surety, compared to not so long ago, when it was most definitely not. Still so much upside for GCY, let alone, the chance that SL is indeed correct, and we are just seeing the top of the iceberg in terms of what is really still there to be discovered.
@triage - good post and I probably cannot add anything to your read on things. The quarter is not going to be a great one, we know that. Now its all about how much they can claw back....
@atomic79 - cheers, but... all the bright minds on these threads thought the same thing I won't try to discuss the markets and the POG. Crazy markets is my overall view!
This is a fairly brutal table, but.... had to be done, as in the end, GCY needs to be profitable, not just have a 'bigger number' to show in regards to an MRE. Profitable ounce are what makes shareholders see an actual return. This obviously excludes Melville ore.
Due to GCY being a marginal producer, at the right POG, suddenly, a lot more ounces can be returned to the mine plan, yes... they would be less profitable ounces, but... that is the advantage compared to low cost producers... they can only make so much money per ounce. The main deposit is still huge... 200m in thickness at some points.
I suppose, in the end, many in the market only care about the next drill result for Never Never, which is fair enough considering the results to date. Good luck to all holders! (especially any that are still here from before Admin).
GCY Price at posting:
36.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)