MAE 0.00% 0.0¢ marion energy limited

Ann: Goldman Sachs retained to seek buyers for Co, page-31

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    re: Ann: Goldman Sachs retained to seek buyer... Investment Summary
    • We maintain our BUY recommendation and a price target of
    $1.49/sh based on a risked valuation of booked 319bcf of 2P
    reserves. The March Q will be a critical quarter for MAE with
    targeted increased production and a reserves upgrade required in
    order to progress corporate level aspirations by mid-2009. Should
    production targets be reached shortly, followed by the upgraded
    reserves assessment, we remain confident that this will provide the
    necessary catalysts within this timeframe.
    • Steady-state production of 5mmscfd achieved during the
    quarter. Despite historical setbacks MAE commissioned its
    production operations, overcoming hydrates and slowly bringing on
    production via its upgraded facilities. Although production has been
    slow to come online MAE remain confident of achieving its
    20mmscf/d target rate - once achieved this will be a significant
    catalyst. We eagerly await any upgrade in steady state production.
    Sales revenue for the quarter was minimal at $0.9m due to he
    delayed start-up and a lag in receipt of sales resulting in net
    operating cash flows of ($10.36m) after $7.1m in development costs.
    Achieving increased steady state sales during the March Q is critical
    for MAE to progress its strategy and to offset expenditure.
    • Drilling of the Oman 10-29 successfully completed with a
    production test ongoing. The well will add incremental production
    and better define proven (1P) reserves for the field.
    • Two resource reports were completed during quarter
    indicating potential recoverable resources of 2.4 to 4.3 tcf
    from non-producing reservoirs. The resource assessments were
    an important step in highlighting the long term value of the fields to
    a potential buyer. They demonstrate the upside value of the assets
    as a resource play, above and beyond the producing Clear Creek
    reserves.
    • Additional funding of $US10.5m was negotiated at the end of
    the quarter, bringing total facilities to $US36m. While additional
    debt adds risk at the current production rates, it provides confidence
    that the banks due diligence process was supportive of the
    investment.
    Update for the December Quarter 2008
    4 February 2009
    12mth Rating BUY
    Price A$ 0.25
    Target Price A$ 1.49
    12m Total Return % 497.0

    RIC: MAE.AX BBG: MAE AU
    Shares o/s m 343.8
    Free Float % 100.0
    Market Cap. A$m 86.0
    Net Debt (Cash) A$m 36.9
    Net Debt/Equity % 41.9
    3m Av. D. T’over A$m 0.39
    52wk High/Low A$ 1.37/0.13
    2yr adj. beta 1.88
    Valuation:
    Methodology DCF

    Disclosure: Patersons Securities Limited acted as
    Lead Manager to the Placement issue that raised
    $15.0m at $0.86 per share completed in August 2008
    and previously acted as Lead Manager to the
    Placement issue that raised $43.5m at $0.90 per
    share completed in November 2007. In addition,
    Patersons Corporate Finance Limited acted as Marion
    Energy's merger and acquisition advisor for
    the acquisition of Odyssey Energy's assets announced
    in June 2008 (due for completion on 1 September
    2008) and has been retained by MAE to assist with
    both present and possible future corporate advisory
    assignments.
 
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