All good - hard to tell if the NPV is after funding but I'm...

All good - hard to tell if the NPV is after funding but I'm guessing it is because if you look at the table on pg9 it says the NPV(6.5) is post-tax - so seems like it includes cost of funding. Plus, they talk about WACC - so I assume they include it in their cashflows or they wouldnt be able to weighted-average it. The proportion of debt/equity funding is not shown that I can tell though, so not sure how meaningful it all is and how much equity dilution to factor in.

Interesting to also note the IRR at 26% - if you take a 'nominal return' to shareholders of 30-50% of IRR as reasonable, then that's an 8-13% return, not 6.5%. And on real, rather than nominal, figures. Of course the margins of error make it hard to draw too many conclusions and you have to remember that year 0 for the IRR is 2027 and FCFs aren't calculated until 2029 (I assume, based on them not including pre-production capital). Either way, you need to add 6 years at whatever your risk-free rate is before calculating to today's dollars, so no more than 50% of a NPV8 value. I'd be happier to value on a per-share basis at 50% of NPV12. Not about to build a sheet that does it though.

Personally I'm also thinking 2029 to production is a bit ambitious. 2 years to PFS would indicate at least another 2 after that to complete FS and FEED stages before construction could begin and final orders be placed. Capex on a 30 Mtpa POX project coming in under USD 2.5B is ambitious too. Might be doable though and not unreasonable for Scoping Study level.

And you need to also remember that the PFS is going to add underground. They're talking caving, which means a massive footprint, large surface area, that cant have any waste dumps or processing plant or tailings dams built over the top of it, and long term permanent destruction of forests. Unlikely to be environmentally acceptable. More likely some form of primary/secondary SLOS with paste, but still potentially 1500m deep shafts (think $300-500M each), 5-10 Mtpa underground crusher (another $2-300M). Plus a massive solar and battery farm to negotiate a takeoff agreement with (probably 100 MW and 500 MWhr). Maybe another $1-1.5 billion to be funded from early cashflows, so pushing out the payback period maybe another 3-5 years.

Not advice and DYOR of course.