Good and sound comments. Adjusting for the metal prices adopted to spot like prices and a 9% discount rate will reduce the NPV by roughly two thirds (this is a very rough estimate) and then one needs to adjust for the optimistic cost figures you mentioned. There have been huge cost blow outs in development or expansion of projects. One needs to ask if the project even has a positive NPV?
I agree the SP has further to fall. The SS reflects very poorly on management and board - how on earth can they have thought they could get away with such a optimistic SS is a big puzzle - they must be really stupid if they thought no one would notice the things you have pointed out. The consequence is that the reputation of the CEO, senior management and the board is very damaged - once damaged it is very difficult to come back from such serious miscalculations.
In hindsight it seems CHN management and board have been pumping the project way above what it is worth. Sure glad I sold out a few months ago between $7 and $8 (I started to have doubts about the value of the project and the high SP).
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