Evaluate the various metallurgical or environmental or infrastructural or local issues involved....assign probabilities and then lay your money down.
Yes the average punter in this speculative end of the market is no doubt happy to evaluate metallurgical issues - not.
Most of the said average punters are simply looking for 100%, 200% 300% capital gain.
Your post reads like you require guarantees - but no guarantees at this end of the market.
If you are looking for that type of investment you would be better off speaking to your bank about a term deposit.
You may not be enamoured but someone wants what Chalice have got - as evidenced by the fact that millions of shares change hands most trading days yet there is no transparency - who is selling, who is buying - in the main retail holders do not appear to be selling so, given your perspicacity perhaps you could provide the answer to this mystery.
No investment advice here.
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