Crunch the numbers before you get too excited. Yes, the...

Crunch the numbers before you get too excited. Yes, the valuation should be more than the current SP but I've seen other posts where people are referring to in-situ metal numbers. Irrelevant.

Latest metal pricing & A$:$US gives about A$130/t in-situ. Lets use the CHN assumptions: A$151/t for the global estimate of 0.70 g/t Pd, 0.15 g/t Pt, 0.16% Ni, 0.09% Cu, 0.015% Co & 0.03 g/t Au. Using the current weighted average recoveries from the release of 60% for Pd/Pt 45% for Ni/Co, 85% for Cu and 70% for Au brings the recovered metal value to ~$84/t. After WA royalty, marketing and smelting charges (10% overall?) => $74/t. Mining, crushing, treating and owners charges to be determined but likely to be north of $40/t (??) given the requirement to grind it down to dust with the non-straightforward metallurgy even with the estimated strip ratio given out yesterday. CAPEX for a 20 Mt/yr operation - some very large 9 digit to $1B cost? Feed all that into an NPV calculation for a range of sensitivities and divide by shares on issue remembering that there is dilution to come. You don't get $20 valuations. If you use current (rather than assumed / forecast prices) it's not nearly so interesting.

The good news is that with the low grade, the ongoing work to improve recoveries could have a big impact on the NPV. Improving the global Pt/Pd & Ni/Co recoveries from from 60% and 45% to 65% and 50% respectively (say) could add multiple $/share. So the met update is the next big one for me barring something truly exciting happening on the exploration front.

GLTAH