Hi All,
Appreciate everyone's patience today as i can imagine it was quite confusing in when someone is deliberately misleading the threads. It appears once i had proven them wrong 20 times they ceased the discussion oh well.
I thought i'd show how my maths hold true to compute the rough concentrate price for any rare earth producer. I selected PM8 because IMO it's one of the best hard rock projects and so i will show how superior IXR is compared to the best hard rock project.
My cited references to the IXR figures are as per the quoted post or please read the thread. I will display where i got my figures from for PM8 so my post cannot be derailed by obfuscation.
View attachment 2371469Grades taken from above PM8 table
View attachment 2371472Recoveries taken from the PFS namely 35-39%. (Remember concentrate grade isn't recovery two different things so don't be mislead)
View attachment 2371478View attachment 2371505Results? Not great for PM8.
So let me talk through the columns
-Grade PPM - This is the total contained rare earth in 1T of dirt. IXR's eastern sample 1071ppm lonjongo 14000ppm (1.4%)
-Recovery - This is how much of your product is lost in processing. Note superior recoveries on high value elements in makuutu
-Recovered g of TREO/kg. This is how many grams of rare earth element there is in 1kg of concentrate.
So 1kg of concentrate is 1000grams.
Makuutu produces a 90% concentrate thus its TREO in 1kg of liquor is 900g
PM8 producers 35% concentrate thus its TREO in 1kg of liquor is 350g
If i sell 1kg of Makuutu it's total contained value is 33USD.
as company states ~75% payability (less cracking and processing required for convertors)
So ~$24.5USD revenue p/kg of concentrate - no scandium credit included.
If i sell 1kg of PM8 it's total contained value is 5.48USD.
IMO payability of hard rock usually 50% meaning this 5.48USD goes to 2.75USD. China syndrome has even said themselves payability is 50%. You can see his posts up, so thanks for ensuring forum is aware.
So ~$2.75USD revenue p/kg of concentrate - no scandium credit included.
Pensana claims they used (assumed payability) and that they will receive around 3800/t = $3.8kg.
As you can see either the rare earth pricing (which i copied from chinasyndrome to prove it was misleading the actual revenue. If you used these pricing mechanisms it lowers the profitability of PM8 quite significantly.
View attachment 2371508What i will indicate to be level headed because i don't like to display one side of the equation.
And that is that i expect makuutu's opex costs to be approximately 6-8usd/kg meaning a margin of around 20USD/kg. This is inline with biolantanidos, infact slightly higher so it's conservative but proven. China has opex cost of 3USD.
Pensana's PFS claims an opex cost of ~$1170/t = $1.17/kg.
Makuutu will target lower production like biol hence the 3000-5000tpa. Whereas pensana aims to produce 60,000T of watered down concentrate.
This is why ionic clays are so economic. They do not need economies of scale to make profit because their margin is so large, unlike PM8 who has opex margin of 1-2 dollars. Then look into capex costs. I could go on about the creative accounting of the PM8 capex but that's a little off topic.
I trust that the aforementioned explanation fulfills readers understanding of how to compute concentrate revenue from head grade.
It should also be noted that i would advise people to check posters posting history so as to make inference to their integrity and agenda. I post of all stocks one i do and don't hold and i am both bullish and bearish when appropriate. If i only posted on IXR bullishly, and posted negatively on all other rare earth plays this would suggest something slightly ascue.
I think i may have to start brushing up on my real estate skills because this is now the 14th topic which i have debunked. wishing everyone well.
I have contacted management about everything discussed in these threads and they have confirmed that my workings are accurate in nature. I'd strongly advise anyone here who has concerns to contact the company directly and not rely on HC posters. But you can see my working to be accurate and also to align with what the company has stated. So people can make a choice. Poster with strong credibility posting across all stocks presenting information in line with company announcement or you can choose the other.
either is fine with me
enjoy your weekends.
SF2TH
(20min delay)