its not about more or less flows from coal or shale, or vertical or horizontal wells, or frack or no frack, or open faces or not, it's more about which combination if any is the most profitable and nearer to possible commercialisation!
Slide 6 of today's preso says it all IMO, massive potential from the coals should the engineering work out! Remember, David has a successful CSG background and he is driving the show, tend to trust his vision and experience.
Think about it this way, with everything BPT plan to do in the CB next year, with all of their available alternatives they choose to test Dav & Mars 1 in Q1 2013 - that's a real coup for STX IMO and tells me a great deal!
Also, another thing I should have previously mentioned, as shale is especially expensive to explore/prove up in Aus, I think STX wants to leave this to others with deeper pockets for the moment, or at least until more viable options permit.
At the heart of it, I think a PEL94 pilot offers STX an affordable nearer term cashflow compared to PEL95 shale. There in lies the commerciality of the coal for now, being close to pipe....it could change anytime, political risk, enviro risk, project risk etc etc
Remember, in this tough market, it's actual production that's will get STX the attention it needs to attract development capital not blue sky, no matter how big or blue the sky may be, no one is interested in this market!
In summary I see PEL94 as being a quick, affordable opportunity for STX to demonstrate a "proof of concept" in the CB and I reckon they know it! If Dav1 can flow it may be very cheap to keep hooking up others....
EFS, Permian and Louise cashflows are welcome but a cashflow from CB would be icing on the cake!!!
HC
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