NTD 0.00% 37.5¢ ntaw holdings limited

We are very fortunate to have Madamswer invested in this. I...

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    We are very fortunate to have Madamswer invested in this. I think we are losing sight of how much progress has already been made before the Dunlop issue.
    I cannot claim to have done the financial analysis it comes from this post of Madamswer :
    https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/69834639/single
    Essentially 2023 was made up of 2 very contrasting halves the first half a loss of around $1,7 million followed by a 2nd half profit of approximately $5 million for a net profit of $3,3 million or 2.5c per share.
    If we take the second half it generated 3.8c per share profit so double that as the business should not be cyclical - thus roughly 8c for the 2024 year. However add to that that the excessive IT spend is rapidly dropping means you can suggest it would be around 10c per share. So on my plan I was happy that it had a value of around $1.00 - I seem to remember that Madamswer suggested that it was worth north of a $1.00 but cannot take the time to find the post.

    Then we firstly went up and then the deflated balloon slowly leaked back to 70c. Then the announcement of Dunlop and it shot up again.

    Its my view that former darlings like NTD often wont move other than by way of announcements - or put this way via confirmation bias. No news it drifts as doubt sets in and news reconfirms thesis so up it goes.

    To get to $1.00 in my view all it has to do is deliver the June half for both halves this year with a few more things continuing to improve.

    Then Dunlop. Dunlop is a strange brand - I don't think it is really a company.it seems to be a brand which has various owners in different parts of the world:

    "In 1999 Sumitomo and Goodyear began a joint venture by which Sumitomo continued to manufacture all Japanese-made tyres under the Dunlop name, while Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company bought 75% of the European and North American tyre businesses of Sumitomo."
    This JV was dissolved in 2015 and Goodyear took over Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America. Malaysia , Singapore and Brunei is owned by Continental AG and Asia and I suppose Japan is Sumitomo.

    Effectively Sumitomo has another brand that is sold here called Falcon. I see it is imported and once in the past 5 years I was offered one by a very small outlet who tried to offer it on a price advantage to me.

    My view is that yes Goodyear may be selling it and logically it will probably end up with either Continental or Sumitomo. Continental seem to be stocked by MyCar and Tyrepower. Personally I don't think it would be a huge difference but think that if Continental get it its a good chance they bundle it into their normal distribution channel. If Sumitomo get it they would do well to do the same deal with NTD.

    I don't think it makes any difference right now and possibly the best news is that they are on track for repeating the 2nd half of 2023 in the first half of 2024.

    Always remember people are hurt - they paid in the $1.30 on a rights issue a few years ago.

    Last edited by joewolf: 17/11/23
 
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