FFX 0.00% 20.0¢ firefinch limited

Ann: Goulamina Drilling Returns Positive Results, page-75

  1. 2,674 Posts.
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    Its all about the 4mtpa scenario for me mate.

    4mtpa = conservative 700,000t of 6% spodumene
    Cash costs = 300t USD (potentially lower under 4mtpa scenario factoring in BOD savings targets)
    Sales Price = 1,000t USD (potentially higher with latest pricing trends eg: ORE + GXY)
    Margin = 700t USD
    Annual Cash Profit = $490,000,000 USD
    FX  = 75c AUD
    Annual Cash Profit = $650,000,000 AUD
    P/E Multiple = 7 (very conservative for 20 yr LOM in bull market)
    Forward Valuation = 4.55 billion AUD
    Shares on Issue = 235m
    SP Valuation at 100% = $19.36
    BGS likely ownership of asset after funding of plant = 40% under a Randgold/Anglo/Mali Gov scenario

    BGS SP Valuation =$7.75

    This is a very conservative valuation at probably year 2 of our operation... using conservative sales price, costings and PE multiple, and the biggest thing, doesn't factor in us doing a carbonate or hydroxide operation which has even high margins...
    Doesn't factor in the gold asset either....
    so can easily be  a $10 stock in a couple years. Mark this post and see where I land by end of 2019. Whilst this is not advice, I suspect I will be very close.

    Compare that to 60c and I just see upside and an extremely strong risk/reward scenario.

    BGS will likely be a producer in 2018 (gold) and producer in 2019 (lithium)...

    Boy.
 
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