Many years ago a rural Federal Liberal MP who I knew well told...

Many years ago a rural Federal Liberal MP who I knew well told me (what has by 2021 become ABARES) 'is always wrong'.

However 'The Weekly Times' of Wednesday 8 September 2021 highlights ABARES' 7 September 2021 crop forecasts, which suggest that Oz may have its third highest ever winter grain crop.

This remains to be seen, but forecasts include a national harvest of 54.8 million tonnes, 32 per cent above the 10-year median and only a million tonnes below the winter 2020 winter grain crop that is still, in September 2021, being exported.

Some of the rise is attributed to Western Australia that is of little interest to GNC holders, but fortunately the rest is due to excellent growing conditions in much of NSW.

The ABARES report highlights the possibility of mice continuing to be a problem in northern NSW and southwest Queensland, and highlights how given two consecutive good crops, 'on-farm storage is likely to increase'. The implication is that grain stored on-farm is far more likely to suffer from plagues than if stored in (say) GNC silos and bunkers where crop quality is more 'protected'.

While NSW wheat production is said to fall by 15 per cent to 11.1 million tonnes, this would be 65 per cent above the decade-long median. Barley at 2.7m and canola at 1.1m tonnes will be well above average if achieved.

In Victoria, the other big state for GNC receivals, the total winter crop is suggested to decline by 20 per cent to 7.7 million tonnes but this is still good in my view. Soil moisture has been given a tick by ABARES, and in the last week there's been godo rainfall in areas like Walpeup, Nhill and Horsham.

As one example where ABARES was mistaken, previously it said winter 2020 canola production was 950000 tonnes but it has revised this historic figure to 1.1 million tonnes due to information it received about sales. Even with the presumed winter 2021 drop, there's still 3.7m tonnes of wheat forecast to be harvested in Victoria that will keep GNC busy.

Importantly even if only 80 per cent of forecasts by ABARES become reality (in volume terms), GNC should continue to have an exportable surplus, albeit probably smaller than it is enjoying from the winter 2020 crop.

It will be interesting to hear what GNC says at its November 2021 AGM about overseas demand for its marketed crops and how successful it has been at finding bulk ships to carry the exports. We already know it's been busy upgrading at least a few rural receival points and reopening a few others that from memory were closed in about 2014 when it rationalised the number of handling points.

It's an open question as to whether continuing NSW and Victorian travel curbs/lockdowns, and the relative unavailability of foreign backpackers, will inhibit GNC's search for casual harvest handling labour.

We'd do well to remember rural resident AaronS76's wise words about how what matters is when the grain is at the millers domestically, or loaded on a ship for export, but at this stage subject to the usual caveats about what climatic conditions God can send, it's a pretty rosy outlook, Droughts in parts of Europe and less than ideal conditions in Canada and IIRC parts of the USA graingrowing belt have been helping to drive demand for our quality crops.