the Black Sea deal is for Ukrainian grain, more than enough Russian to plug the gap. a lot of euro nations have already banned ukr grain anyway to protect local producers from cheap imports.
russia has been filling all global tenders in the last 2 months, huge volumes for prices most recently as low as 245 fob into Algeria (for 600k mt)
currently replacement fob values out of vic would be in the vicinity of 280-290 for similar grade.
even with our quality advantages and freight advantages into Asian markets it's not going anywhere. Algeria isn't a traditional customer for aus but Black Sea wheat works into Asia cheaper than we do.
domestic prices are soft and falling but not enough to make easy money in the exports anymore.
as I said not bullish gnc currently.
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